Stoneage Ramblings

By John R. Stone

Have you ever sat and wondered how this Russia-Ukraine-China thing is going to work out?

I sure have and I don’t see any easy answers. Vladimir Putin seems to have his mind focused on getting ahold of Ukraine regardless of the cost. He has already set his country back a decade or two financially and caused the flight of many of the best and brightest of Russia’s young people.

He was worried about NATO but his actions have made NATO stronger than ever.  Sweden and Finland have completed talks to join NATO as well. That, too, is huge, it tells you what much of Europe fears. NATO currently has 30 members, mostly European, with three more expressing interest not counting Sweden and Finland.

In terms of future damage, Europe is working to wean itself from Russian oil and natural gas. Germany cancelled work on the second of two pipelines to bring natural gas to Europe. New ships for moving natural gas are under construction and ports are being prepared to receive them. All that in just 12 months.

China’s role in this is interesting. Of course it shares a border with Russia and China has talked about a new “Silk Road” trade route through Russia to Europe. So it would want to keep its options open with Russia.

On the other hand, if it plans on sending stuff to Europe it better not upset the Europeans or there will be nothing to sell.

China is also a trading partner with United States, which may be one of its largest markets for manufactured goods. One would have to imagine that the Chinese are thinking about that market as they deal with Russia. Russia has ruined its economy so badly that it will be decades before it could replace the United States as a credit worthy customer.

And the United States does trade with China, especially in the area of agricultural products.

China is also watching this because the island of Taiwan, which it has for years claimed as being part of China. How the world reacts to Ukraine might give it some tips about what to avoid in its relationship with Taiwan. But China is also trying to expand its influence in the South China sea claiming to convert what are now international waters into home country waters that are it’s own.

The U.S. role has largely centered around getting Europe unified and sending munitions. It is interesting that ammo is a problem for both sides. Ukraine’s supporters are actually going to countries that have old Soviet military gear and buying up ammo. Much of Ukraine’s military equipment is old Soviet equipment. The Ukraine has been shooting off more artillery shells in a month than the U.S. has on order for six months. That’s a problem they’re working on but isn’t solved overnight.

Some say the U.S. should send jets, some say no. In the background of these discussions are people wondering just how crazy Putin is. He has nukes and had threatened nukes. If he runs out of ammo what happens?

If there is a good thing in this whole mess it is that the people of the Ukraine want freedom and are willing to fight for it. Their bravery in this regard, holding off a nation with a larger (if less effective) army has been amazing. They have effective leadership. At this point this is not another Vietnam or Afghanistan where people didn’t really care much about what they had for government. I hope they don’t tire or give up hope.

If Putin wins in Ukraine then Europe is threatened, a much depleted Russian military should be less of a threat for a while one might think. Unless China decides to help more.

There are a lot of questions at this point and a lot of concerns and fears. Lets hope that well-armed Ukranians can finish this battle without more involvement from us than supplying arms and ammunition.