View From The Cab

By David Tollefson, Columnist

A year ago, at my farm, we had a rather wet spring. Beginning in April of 2022, through May and into the month of June, we had over a foot of rain, and 5 inches of snow during the early growing season.

This year is quite different. We all know what the winter of 2022 into 2023 was like. My farm totaled 48 inches of snow beginning rather early in November of 2022 and ending with 20 inches of snow in March and April.

As a result of all that snow having to melt and go somewhere, the ground cover of snow over the winter was very nice. All the hills were snow-covered and, even with all the strong winds, both from the northwest and southeast, there was very little wind erosion of soil, thankfully.

But much of that 48-inches of snow melted and went into the creeks and rivers. Some went into the soil, as there was not much frost in the ground.

Harvest last fall was quite rapid, with few delays for rain. Tillage, however, was a problem in that the ground was so dry from less than an inch and a half of rain in the months of September and October of 2022. Farmers complained about how the dry soil resulted in more rapid wear of tillage teeth and shovels into the month of November.

Most tillage was done by the time rain and snow began around November 7.

Back to this past spring – after less than two inches of rain up to the day I write this (June 15), we are definitely in a drought condition. On the land I operate, I had two rains in June of .53 and .12 inches. Thank goodness for those two rains. They were enough to germinate a good portion of especially soybeans that were slow to emerge.

On two different trips by car, the first one on May 20 to Mankato, and second to the St. Cloud area on June 13, I saw the variability in rainfall in different parts of Minnesota.

On the trip to Mankato, I drove down highway 55 to Eden Valley, then turned south heading for Hutchinson. I knew from reports that there had been some areas of heavy, heavy rain. I first noticed water standing and many acres of crops not planted, south of Litchfield. Going through New Ulm, there was a detour of the main highway from there to Mankato, so I don’t know if that was from construction or flooding, but the Minnesota River was plenty high for sure.

Needless to say, I did not take that route back home.

So, this week, on the trip to St. Cloud to get my brother and sister onto the shuttle to MSP airport, we took the fastest route, down I94.

Coming back, with less rush, I chose to go west on Hwy 23 toward Paynesville to get onto highway 55. Of course, highway 23 had a detour on it. But that was OK, since the detour took me north into good farm country I’d never seen before, toward St. Martin, then back on 23, closer to Paynesville.

In that good dairy and beef country – good black soil with some irrigators on it, I was shocked to see nice corn approaching knee high, with drought stress in it. The term for that would be “roping,” where the leaves on the corn curl up to conserve moisture.

We don’t see much “roping” around here yet, but it won’t be long if we don’t get some rain.

In an audio commentary called “Market Minute” for June 15 that comes to my cell phone, are some scary details of the crops at this time in the corn belt.

*One of the worst Midwest droughts in 131 years.

*57% of the corn belt is experiencing drought, up 12% from last week.

* We are in a critical time frame next few weeks.

*Next 10 days short moisture.

*We have 30% more drought in Midwest than we did in 2012.

*Corn belt is far worse than 2012. It’s not even comparable.

On DTNAg, head weatherman John Varanick talks about some optimism for the future weather for the corn belt. Here it is, in part:

Overall, another dry week in the Midwest continues to increase concern about this year’s crops. Yet not all hope is lost so early this season: The weather pattern is a lot less stagnant than it was from mid-May to early June, which will produce more systems moving through the country.

A system that is currently in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains will shift down into the Southeast during the weekend. It will be a slow mover, which is typically a good sign, but models have all sorts of inconsistencies in the forecast coverage and amounts as the system moves through. There just does not seem to be enough for the system to work with to create widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms for much of the Corn Belt that would turn around conditions for many areas. And this system will also miss a large portion of the Eastern Corn Belt as it moves through. Areas in the west certainly have good chances for rain, but as the system approaches the Mississippi River on Sunday, it shears apart with one piece of energy headed toward Hudson Bay and another going down into the Southeast, splitting around the eastern Midwest. Some areas may still catch some rain that need it, but major portions of Wisconsin and Illinois eastward are favored to remain dry.

My panic button has not been set just yet, but that doesn’t mean that the concerns aren’t valid. Soil moisture across the Corn Belt is currently worse off than it was in 2012 at this point in the year. So much of the region is now hand-to-mouth when it comes to rainfall. And areas that do get missed or receive only light precipitation going forward are unlikely to have the full season that was hoped for this spring.

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Please contact David Tollefson with thoughts or comments on this or future columns at: adtollef@hcinet.net