Stoneage Ramblings

By John R. Stone

You may have heard of Professor David Schultz of Hamline University in St. Paul. He teaches political science and is frequently on television where he is asked to analyze things like presidential races.

He did that recently at Senior College at Alexandria Community and Technical College in Alexandria. He is an excellent and popular presenter.

Schultz said that up until recently two factors were accurate predictors of election results, one was the president’s popularity and the other was the public perception of the state of the economy in the second quarter of an election year. If both were good, the president and his political party were predicted to do well, if not the party in power would see losses in the House and Senate.

But that was up ended in 2022 when President Biden’s popularity was not very high and inflation was starting to hit the economy. What was predicted to be a big Republican sweep didn’t end up that way, Democrats won the Senate and the Republican House margin was much smaller than what was predicted.

The two things that changed that, according to Schultz, were the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade in June of 2022 and that campaigns matter, a good candidate with a good campaign can still win.

Over all Schultz has concluded that out of 458 House seats there are only about 30 seats that matter and in the Senate that number is about nine seats. The reason he cited is that we have become more polarized, those seats in play are those where there is still a significant independent vote that can swing an election one way or the other.

Another factor is that both political parties have redistricted their states to provide “safe” zones where only a candidate of one party is likely to win.

When it comes to presidential races he says that roughly 150,000 voters in six states will determine the winner. Those states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If the race would be held today, Schulz said, Donald J. Trump would receive 235 Electoral College votes and Joseph Biden would receive 232. The remaining 71 votes come from the six battleground states, the person who gets to 270 electoral votes, the number required to become president, from some combination of the battleground states wins.

But Schultz also says there are a large number of “Black Swans,” things that could affect the public’s perception of either candidate that could swing the election toward or away from a particular candidate this year. They are:

·Donald Trump’s various legal trials, up to 30 percent of Republicans have said they might not vote for Mr. Trump if he is convicted of a felony.

·Since 60 to 65 percent of people don’t like the idea of a Biden-Trump rematch will a third party candidate such as RF Kennedy Jr. have an impact?

·Some development in Gaza or the Ukraine.

·The price of gas and groceries closer to election day.

·Will young people show up to vote for two elderly men?

·The impact of the border crisis.

·More Supreme Court decisions.

·The Taylor Swift impact, what if she endorsed a candidate and encouraged young women to vote?

·And the one nobody likes to talk about, a health problem or other disqualifying issue for either President Biden or Donald Trump.

We’re still at least six months from the election so many possible combinations of events can change how the public perceives the two leading candidates.