Stoneage Ramblings

By John R. Stone

Our President Donald J. Trump says that the stock market isn’t the economy and in that respect he is correct. However, the stock market reflects what investors in the economy think is going on and that picture should be an issue for concern.

Markets like stability and a visible, positive path forward, and so far the action of the president regarding tariffs and their on-again off-again nature do not project a positive picture.

Adding to the confusion is the dismantling of various government agencies by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency also known as DOGE.

It seems that nobody knows for sure what is going to happen tomorrow and markets and business planning are all about the future.

If a business wants growth it may need to invest in equipment and payroll and it needs to see a pathway for that plan to work. If a business cannot see a clear path ahead it may decide not to move now until it sees a better future.

The chaos in Washington these days doesn’t help.  Nobody knows for sure what the outcome will be because nobody is telling us specifically what the objective is, if there is one, other than everything will be great and wonderful.

The tariff game will likely affect farm exports, for example. Farms are businesses, they have to balance what they plan to spend against anticipated income. At this point they don’t know how their markets will be affected or what protections, if any, will remain to protect them from potential disasters be they from weather or markets.

And it isn’t just protection programs, apparently the cuts at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) will result in $1 to $2 billion in food grains that agency will no longer be buying. Retaliation to US tariffs will hurt, too.

It’s the same rule that applies to most businesses. What does the future look like? Is now the time to expand or do I need to hunker down until this thing shakes itself out?

President Trump has not been specific about what he wants government to look like when he is done shrinking it, what programs will remain and what programs will go.

It isn’t just agriculture. A headline last week said that airlines expected a dip in traffic because of people’s concerns about the economy.

While you may not think of airline concerns affecting Glenwood, we have two major firms in Glenwood that supply equipment for the airline industry, and some other local shops that supply them. I’m not saying there are any effects at this time, but I suspect their leadership is paying close attention.

I do know that those firms are concerned the impact tariffs will have on steel and aluminum prices since those commodities are major components of the parts they make for airlines.

Making government smaller isn’t necessarily a bad thing depending upon how that is done and what remains afterwards.

DOGE seems to aimed at reducing payroll and making arbitrary choices about what programs should be cut or trimmed back. It would seem to me that Congress should be much more involved in this process. Congress created the programs.

With Congress largely sitting on its hands, newly appointed department heads with little experience in management or a department’s responsibilities are in charge of thousands of employees. Confusion reigns supreme.

People are fired one day, called back several days later. Some actions are ruled by courts as requiring Congressional action, not just a decision by a DOGE employee. And through all of this we have people wondering if their jobs are next. Tariffs are on one minute and gone the next.

It is no wonder that people and businesses are concerned and being cautious. It would seem to be reasonable to expect to have our leadership explain what plan they are operating under, or if there even is one.