Stoneage Ramblings

By John R. Stone

Going into Nov. 5 I wasn’t really sure what would happen in the race for President of the United States. It looked like it would be close.

The election boiled down to seven swing states, states that could go either for the Republican or Democratic candidate for president. I thought it was interesting that many predicted that most or all of the swing states would go the same way. So Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona were the deciders.

Donald J. Trump garnered about the same number of votes he did in 2020 but Kamala Harris did not poll nearly as well as President Joe Biden did in 2020. And that was the difference.

Democrats will be going over the reasons for that for some time. Was it the short time she had to campaign had after Biden withdrew? Was it because she was a woman? Was it because she failed to connect with the average American?

I think Trump won because a lot of Americans want to see some change in government. Trump could say that and outline that, Harris apparently felt she couldn’t say how she would change things because that would be a criticism of how Biden was running things, which could turn off Democratic voters.

Trump promised a lot but I suspect there is some that will not get done.

I think the round up of illegals will get ugly, which might not take long. As people get rounded up in far away states people won’t think much. When they get to people we can actually see being arrested, it will be different. Businesses that use those people as employees could find themselves in trouble.

Taxes are going to be a big issue. The tax cuts from Trump’s first term expire at the end of 2025. The Federal budget showed a $1.8 trillion deficit for the year that ended Sept. 30, 2024. And yet Trump and Harris proposed not taxing tips or overtime. One article I read said the tips are not a big deal with a 10-year cost of $300 billion but the overtime would have a cost of $1 trillion. Some also want to expand or eliminate the SALT (state and local tax) deduction restrictions.

There are a number of conservative members of Congress who do not like deficits and may not support those newly proposed cuts or those in the bill that expires at the end of 2025 without some major budget cutting. Shrinking programs to reduce budgets won’t be easy. Every program has a constituency and defenders that cross party lines.

Drill, drill, drill may not lower gas prices. During the pandemic, when gas dropped to below $2, oil drillers and refiners were in a bind. They had more oil than they could sell. In short, they have no interest in creating another gas glut, they are more comfortable in remaining profitable. The U.S. already pumps more oil than it ever has before.

This is very complicated because the U.S. does not have refining capacity to suddenly refine large quantities of U.S. oil. Refineries are expensive and take years to bring online.

While both Trump and Harris said they would not touch Social Security, it could happen indirectly. Anything that reduces taxable income like no taxes on tips or overtime reduces SS income.

Tariffs will be another big issue. Many economists warn that they can be inflationary since the tariffs are actually paid by importers who will pass the tax along. Some say they will be used primarily as a tool for better trade deals so the impact will be less.

How will these changes impact us? They will be painful to some, could have some severe effects on others, while some may see huge benefits. I would hope that people in charge would study the potential impacts and share them with us so we can be prepared. In fact it might be wise to avoid some negative backlash.

It does appear a big shakeup underway. Our new president is surrounding himself with people who strongly support him and are likely to carry through with his desires. He wants a big show to kick things off on Jan. 20, 2025 and he might well have it!